A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
