Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
